Thomas Davoine & Matthias Molnar (2020), Cross-country fiscal policy spillovers and capital-skill complementarity in integrated capital markets, Economic Modelling, Volume 88, 2020, Pages 132-150, ISSN 0264-9993, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.09.014.

Abstract

The 2010 European sovereign debt crisis has renewed discussions on fiscal policy coordination. One rationale for coordination is fiscal policy cross-country spillovers. A common finding in the literature is that spillovers tend to be small in normal circumstances but can be large if monetary policy is at the zero lower bound. Orthogonal to the existing literature, we document a novel channel that generates cross-country spillovers over the medium run. We assume perfect capital markets integration and find that capital-skill complementarity can lead to large spillovers without the zero lower bound nor a large import share in government expenditures. As capital markets have become increasingly integrated in the Eurozone, the current degree of fiscal policy coordination between its members, low, may be insufficient. We also find that the smoothing benefits from a temporary rise in public debt spill over to other countries.