A new discussion paper by Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji on international correlation of business cycles has been published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research:
http://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=11257#
[pdf]
Also see their column “Synchronisation in business cycles: An endogenous explanation” at VoxEU:
The House of Lords European Union Committee has produced a report on the Five Presidents’ Report. Iain Begg acted as a Specialist Adviser to the committee.
House of Lords (2016), ‘Whatever it takes’: the Five Presidents’ Report on completing Economic and Monetary Union. House of Lords European Union Committee, 13th Report of Session 2015–16, HL Paper 143. [Text] [Pdf]
House of Lords EU Select Committee
Also see:
House of Commons (2016), Implications of the referendum on EU membership for the UK’s role in the world. House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, Fifth Report of Session 2015–16, HC 545. [pdf]
A preliminary version of LUISS’s deliverable on fiscal policy coordination has been published as a CeLEG Working Paper. It will be reviewed and updated before delivering the final version for the FIRSTRUN project at the end of August 2016.
Alexandre Lucas Cole, Chiara Guerello and Guido Traficante (2016). One EMU Fiscal Policy for the EURO. CeLEG Working Paper Series No. 02/16.
The authors welcome comments and feedback:
Alexandre Lucas Cole: alexcole82@gmail.com
Chiara Guerello: cguerello@luiss.it
Guido Traficante: guido.traficante@unier.it
The following research deliverables have been published March 1, 2016:
D1.2: Fiscal policy spillovers (NIESR)
D3.1: A Fiscal Union for Europe: State of play of the debate and proposals (CEPS)
D4.1: Is fiscal policy pro-cyclical in bad times? (CEPS)
D4.5: The fiscal and monetary determinants of sovereign bond yields in the Euro Area (NIESR)
All deliverables are available here
The first stakeholder forum “EMU Monetary and Fiscal Policies in times of high debt and low interest rate” was held in Brussels on February 16, 2016 (CEPS, Place du Congres 1).
Presentations:
Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji: Animal Spirits and the International Transmission of Business Cycles
Lars Jonung on national fiscal councils:
The first FIRSTRUN research deliverables have been published.
Deliverable 1.1: Cross-Country Spillover Effects and Fiscal Policy Coordination in EMU.
Deliverable 6.1: The European Expenditory State: an emerging mode of economic governance?
You can find all FIRSTRUN deliverables here.
Evolution of EU economic governance
The UK in a Changing Europe, 26 October 2015
Deepening EU economic governance: the next steps
The UK in a Changing Europe, 29 October 2015
The first version of our real-time dataset of fiscal variables is now available at www.firstrun.eu/data. The dataset consists of bi-annual vintages of the AMECO (the annual macro-economic database) data. Among other variables, it includes real-time estimates of actual and potential output and structural balance of general government.
This paper considers what will be required to make Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) sustainable following the successive crises of recent years. It starts by laying out the policy benchmark, namely the successive ‘President Reports’ produced by EU institutions. It then suggests three dimensions of sustainable integration relevant to EMU, namely the pursuit of sustainable growth, the need to take into account what we call ‘varieties of modernisation’ and the ‘ownership’ of democratically sustainable reforms. It then evaluates the recasting of EMU governance against the benchmark of sustainable integration.